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"I'll Venmo You Later"

Why it never happens

Every IOU has a half-life. Surveys put the share of informal loans to friends or family that never get fully repaid somewhere around 40 to 50%—and "I'll get you next time" almost never works.

The science of forgetting

In 1885, German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus conducted one of the most famous experiments in psychology. He memorized lists of nonsense syllables and tested himself at increasing intervals.

His discovery, now known as the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve, revealed something striking about human memory:

56%

forgotten within 1 hour

66%

forgotten within 24 hours

75%

forgotten within 6 days

79%

forgotten within 31 days

Memory doesn't fade gradually—it collapses rapidly, then levels off. Most forgetting happens in the first few hours.

The relevance to "I'll Venmo you later" is direct. That split you calculated at 9:47 PM on Saturday? By Sunday morning, the details are already fuzzy. By next weekend, they're gone.

Restaurant bills aren't distinctive. They're routine. Forgettable. The exact items, who ordered what, the precise amounts—all of it dissolves into "roughly $40, I think?" within a day.

Source: Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology, Hermann Ebbinghaus, 1885

The IOU decay rate

Memory is only half the problem. Even when people remember they owe you money, they still don't pay. The behavioral economics literature explains why.

44%

of people who lent money to friends or family say they were never fully repaid

Source: FinanceBuzz survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 2023

This isn't about bad friends. It's about how the human brain handles delayed obligations. Hyperbolic discounting—documented by Laibson (1997)—means the longer the delay, the less likely repayment becomes.

The delay problem: A $32 debt that feels urgent tonight feels trivial by tomorrow. Each passing day increases the psychological distance between the promise and the action—making "I'll get you later" progressively less likely to happen.

A Bankrate survey found 37% of respondents lost money after lending cash to a friend or family member.

Your brain hates future payments

Neuroscience research on hyperbolic discounting shows something counterintuitive: future payments feel less real than present ones.

$100

today

feels like $100

$100

next week

feels like $85

$100

next month

feels like $60

This is why it's so common to say "I'll deal with that later" even when we know we won't. The brain treats future-you and present-you as different people entirely.

When you agree to pay later: Your present self feels the relief of not paying. Your future self—practically a stranger—is stuck with the obligation.

"We treat our future selves as strangers... we tend to give much less weight to the well-being of future selves than to the well-being of present selves."

— Hal Hershfield, UCLA Psychologist

The mental accounting loophole

Richard Thaler's Nobel Prize-winning research on mental accounting explains why friends treat IOUs differently than "real" money:

  • At the restaurant:The dinner exists in your "fun" or "social" budget. The money is already spent.
  • At home:The IOU you owe exists in a vague "obligations" mental account. It doesn't feel like real money anymore.

The loophole: Once a debt moves from "tonight's dinner" to "vague IOU," the urgency to repay drops by more than half. The money moves from a real category to an imaginary one.

The social cost of asking twice

Good intentions meet the most powerful social constraint: the awkwardness of asking for money back.

Research on social dynamics shows that asking someone to repay creates an uncomfortable power dynamic. The person asking feels like they're being "that friend"—petty, cheap, or overly focused on money.

The asymmetry of asking: The person who owes feels mildly inconvenienced. The person who's owed feels awkward even bringing it up. This imbalance means small debts often go unrecovered—it's easier to eat the $27 than damage the friendship.

$237

median amount that never gets paid back

26%

say it strained or ended a relationship

Sources: LendingTree and Bankrate lending surveys, 2023.

The obvious solution

The research points to one clear solution: settle immediately. Before the forgetting curve kicks in. Before hyperbolic discounting makes tomorrow's payment feel optional. Before the IOU moves to a vague mental account.

This is exactly why Fair Fare was built. Scan the receipt. Say who had what. Send payment requests before anyone leaves the table.

No "I'll Venmo you later." No forgotten amounts. No awkward follow-ups.

Skip "later." Settle now.

Download Fair Fare and split bills before anyone forgets.

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